Archive for July, 2009

Just the front side of a recession?

Wednesday, July 15th, 2009

Just talked to a friend who had some interesting things to say about the economy, particularly about how we are being misled by the government and Wall Street:

This is the front end of a recession – the tougher back end is in front of us.

Jobs are a lag…not a lead factor. This is not an inflation or inventory driven correction…this is a global credit and banking collapse.

Name a recession with a 17% unemployment rate on the front side since the panic of 1837? The 17% is not the government number of course – Birth death model corrections and other “assumptions” should not be accepted just becasue it convieniences them…the same calaculation basis used in the Great Depression (which was 30-33% at its trough) yields a number roughly north of 17% right now.

Japan is the second largest economy in the world. It dropped 41% in May and 43% in June….name a time when a major nation dropped like that on the front side of a recession?

You know, its a misnomer to call the end of the decline “a recovery” …thats Orwellian. The economy dropped like a stone…and the relief some think they see is the flattening out at an economy much smaller than it used to be…but with out the cash and credit to expand again normally found at the beginning of a true recovery…its not going to get better. Sorry.

What do you think about the economy? Are we flattening out? How long until we see an actual recovery and not just less of a decline?

Detroit, NYC, Phoenix, Portland, Minneapolis

Sunday, July 5th, 2009

According to this article, Detroit, NYC, Phoenix, Portland, Minneapolis are expected to see continuing housing declines for a while. Detroit is no surprise except maybe some people though things could not possibly get much cheaper. I guess I’ve always thought of New York as crazy expensive so I’m not sure I expected it to decline much. But I suppose things had to come down a little.