Posts Tagged ‘Wall Street’

Just the front side of a recession?

Wednesday, July 15th, 2009

Just talked to a friend who had some interesting things to say about the economy, particularly about how we are being misled by the government and Wall Street:

This is the front end of a recession – the tougher back end is in front of us.

Jobs are a lag…not a lead factor. This is not an inflation or inventory driven correction…this is a global credit and banking collapse.

Name a recession with a 17% unemployment rate on the front side since the panic of 1837? The 17% is not the government number of course – Birth death model corrections and other “assumptions” should not be accepted just becasue it convieniences them…the same calaculation basis used in the Great Depression (which was 30-33% at its trough) yields a number roughly north of 17% right now.

Japan is the second largest economy in the world. It dropped 41% in May and 43% in June….name a time when a major nation dropped like that on the front side of a recession?

You know, its a misnomer to call the end of the decline “a recovery” …thats Orwellian. The economy dropped like a stone…and the relief some think they see is the flattening out at an economy much smaller than it used to be…but with out the cash and credit to expand again normally found at the beginning of a true recovery…its not going to get better. Sorry.

What do you think about the economy? Are we flattening out? How long until we see an actual recovery and not just less of a decline?

Is a low housing start number in this housing market is a bad thing?

Thursday, April 16th, 2009

We’re looking for “green shoots” in areas that got us into trouble in the first place – excessive consumption, mis-allocated capital, and a trading mentality. We’re celebrating firms like Goldman and JP Morgan because they made good trading gains while credit to the real economy continues to be cut.

If you believe like the Administration and Wall Street that we’ve got a “confidence” problem, then growing housing starts indicates improvement. If you that we have a structural problem with the economy, then a drop in building over-supplied assets is actually good news.

Lower housing prices can be a good thing because it means that workers can prosper at lower compensation levels, which means that we can start regaining cost advantages relative to our trading partners and taking back industry lost as well as creating new industry. All it would take would be to let the zombies on Wall Street go under.